AJ Blubaugh

Active

Houston Astros · Pitcher

Age 266' 2" · 190 lbsThrows Right

FBaseball Overview

Coming off an impressive MLB debut season in 2025, this 25-year-old right-hander continues to develop as a reliable mid-rotation contributor for Houston with early 2026 numbers showing modest regression but still solid performance across the board. His strikeout rate remains respectable at 50 K through 53.2 innings, though both his ERA (3.52) and WHIP (1.25) have ticked upward compared to his excellent rookie campaign, suggesting he's facing increased competition and adjustment at the major-league level. As a depth starter without save opportunities, he offers fantasy managers steady wins and strikeout production in league formats that value pitching depth, though his inconsistency warrants caution against relying on him as a front-line arm. The upside exists for another strong second half if he can replicate his 2025 efficiency, but managers should monitor whether this early-season regression represents a true baseline or temporary growing pains.

MLB Pitching

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	IP	BB
2025	Houston Astros	11	3	3	1	1.69	0.88	35	32.0	11
2026	Houston Astros	35	0	4	2	3.57	1.24	56	58.0	29
Career	Totals	46	3	7	3	2.90	1.11	91	90	40

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Minor League Pitching

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	ERA	WHIP	K	IP	BB
2022	2 teams▼	6	3	2	1	0	4.34	1.07	24	18.2	6
2023	2 teams▼	26	12	6	3	1	4.41	1.34	112	100	45
2024	2 teams▼	28	25	12	4	0	3.71	1.32	133	128.2	51
2025	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	22	19	5	8	2	5.27	1.57	101	99.0	58
Career	Totals	82	59	25	16	3	4.39	1.38	370	346.1	160

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Game Log2026 season

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Analytics2026 season · via Baseball Savant

Click for year to year changes

FB Velo95.6 mph

Avg Spin2360 rpm

Whiff %27.4%

K %23.0%

BB %11.9%

Hard Hit %34.4%

Barrel %8.3%

xERA4.11

xBA Against0.22

xSLG Against0.374

BA Against0.209

SLG Against0.350

GB%34.8%

FB%34.2%

What These Stats Mean

FB Velo — Average fastball velocity. Harder throwers generate more swings and misses, setting up every other pitch in their arsenal. Velocity is the foundation of strikeout upside.

Avg Spin — Average spin rate across all pitches. Higher spin creates more movement and makes pitches harder to square up — elite spinners run better strikeout and batting average against numbers.

Whiff % — Swings-and-misses per swing. The most direct measure of a pitcher's ability to miss bats and the best leading indicator of strikeout rate.

K % — Strikeout rate per batter faced. The core fantasy pitching stat — high K% means reliable strikeout totals that hold up even in shorter starts.

BB % — Walk rate per batter faced. The primary control metric. High BB% tanks ERA and WHIP and keeps baserunners on constantly. Elite starters typically run below 7%.

Hard Hit % — Percentage of batted balls hit 95 mph or harder against. Low hard-hit% means weak contact, protecting both ERA and the defense behind the pitcher.

Barrel % — Percentage of batted balls barreled against. The most direct home run predictor — low barrel% pitchers rarely give up long balls.

xERA — Expected ERA based on contact quality allowed, removing the effect of sequencing, luck, and defense. Better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself.

xBA Against — Expected batting average opponents should hit based on contact quality. A gap between xBA and actual BA indicates unsustainable luck in either direction.

xSLG Against — Expected slugging allowed based on contact quality. High xSLG against predicts future extra-base damage; low xSLG means the pitcher is genuinely suppressing power.

BA Against — Actual batting average opponents are hitting — a key WHIP component. Check xBA to see if the number is sustainable.

SLG Against — Actual slugging allowed. Captures hits, doubles, triples, and home runs — lower means the pitcher is limiting the power damage he gives up.

GB% — Ground ball rate. High GB% pitchers generate double plays, limit home runs, and keep the ball in the park — great for protecting ERA and WHIP ratios.

FB% — Fly ball rate. High FB% pitchers give up more air contact — dangerous when combined with high exit velocity, less so when contact is soft.

Loading player data...

Year

Team

ERA

WHIP

2025

Houston Astros

1.69

0.88

32.0

2026

Houston Astros

3.57

1.24

58.0

Career

Totals

2.90

1.11

Year

Team

ERA

WHIP

2022

2 teams▼

4.34

1.07

18.2

2023

2 teams▼

4.41

1.34

112

100

2024

2 teams▼

3.71

1.32

133

128.2

2025

Sugar Land Space Cowboys

5.27

1.57

101

99.0

Career

Totals

4.39

1.38

370

346.1

160