Chase Burns

Active

Cincinnati Reds · Pitcher

Age 236' 3" · 210 lbsThrows Right

FBaseball Overview

This 23-year-old Cincinnati Reds starter has made a dramatic leap in his second MLB season, posting a 9-1 record with a 2.36 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 91.2 innings while striking out 112 batters—a substantial jump from his rough 2025 debut. Burns profiles as a high-upside innings eater who can deliver wins and strikeouts consistently, making him a valuable rotation piece in 2026 fantasy drafts despite his youth and limited track record. The risk remains whether he can sustain this breakout performance level or regress closer to his difficult rookie campaign, but his current trajectory suggests he's emerged as a legitimate fantasy asset in both roto and points leagues. His strikeout rate and improved command give him ceiling potential in deeper formats, though managers should monitor his workload as the Reds may limit his usage given his age.

MLB Pitching

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	IP	BB
2025	Cincinnati Reds	13	8	0	3	4.57	1.32	67	43.1	16
2026	Cincinnati Reds	17	17	10	1	2.40	1.08	116	97.2	31
Career	Totals	30	25	10	4	3.06	1.15	183	141	47

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Minor League Pitching

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	ERA	WHIP	K	IP	BB
2025	3 teams▼	13	13	7	3	0	1.77	0.77	89	66	13
Career	Totals	13	13	7	3	0	1.77	0.77	89	66	13

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Game Log2026 season

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Analytics2026 season · via Baseball Savant

Click for year to year changes

FB Velo97.8 mph

Avg Spin2614 rpm

Whiff %32.8%

K %29.7%

BB %7.9%

Hard Hit %38.1%

Barrel %8.9%

xERA3.03

xBA Against0.204

xSLG Against0.345

BA Against0.207

SLG Against0.358

GB%38.0%

FB%28.5%

What These Stats Mean

FB Velo — Average fastball velocity. Harder throwers generate more swings and misses, setting up every other pitch in their arsenal. Velocity is the foundation of strikeout upside.

Avg Spin — Average spin rate across all pitches. Higher spin creates more movement and makes pitches harder to square up — elite spinners run better strikeout and batting average against numbers.

Whiff % — Swings-and-misses per swing. The most direct measure of a pitcher's ability to miss bats and the best leading indicator of strikeout rate.

K % — Strikeout rate per batter faced. The core fantasy pitching stat — high K% means reliable strikeout totals that hold up even in shorter starts.

BB % — Walk rate per batter faced. The primary control metric. High BB% tanks ERA and WHIP and keeps baserunners on constantly. Elite starters typically run below 7%.

Hard Hit % — Percentage of batted balls hit 95 mph or harder against. Low hard-hit% means weak contact, protecting both ERA and the defense behind the pitcher.

Barrel % — Percentage of batted balls barreled against. The most direct home run predictor — low barrel% pitchers rarely give up long balls.

xERA — Expected ERA based on contact quality allowed, removing the effect of sequencing, luck, and defense. Better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself.

xBA Against — Expected batting average opponents should hit based on contact quality. A gap between xBA and actual BA indicates unsustainable luck in either direction.

xSLG Against — Expected slugging allowed based on contact quality. High xSLG against predicts future extra-base damage; low xSLG means the pitcher is genuinely suppressing power.

BA Against — Actual batting average opponents are hitting — a key WHIP component. Check xBA to see if the number is sustainable.

SLG Against — Actual slugging allowed. Captures hits, doubles, triples, and home runs — lower means the pitcher is limiting the power damage he gives up.

GB% — Ground ball rate. High GB% pitchers generate double plays, limit home runs, and keep the ball in the park — great for protecting ERA and WHIP ratios.

FB% — Fly ball rate. High FB% pitchers give up more air contact — dangerous when combined with high exit velocity, less so when contact is soft.

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Year

Team

ERA

WHIP

2025

Cincinnati Reds

4.57

1.32

43.1

2026

Cincinnati Reds

2.40

1.08

116

97.2

Career

Totals

3.06

1.15

183

141