Connelly Early

ActiveIL

Boston Red Sox · Pitcher

Age 246' 3" · 195 lbsThrows Left

FBaseball Overview

This 24-year-old right-hander emerges as a high-upside fantasy starter after earning Post-Season All-Star honors in his 2025 debut, and he builds on that success with a solid 2026 campaign featuring 88 strikeouts and a 3.59 ERA across 87.2 innings. Early demonstrates excellent control with a 1.25 WHIP and showcases the kind of elite minor-league pedigree that suggests his 2025 ERA (2.33) may be more predictive than his 2026 mark, indicating room for improvement in future seasons. His workload of 87.2 innings positions him as a reliable rotation arm for wins and strikeouts, though the uptick in ERA and slight WHIP increase warrant monitoring as he faces bigger league adjustments. Managers seeking a young pitcher with proven strikeout ability and a track record of success should view Early as a mid-tier starter with legitimate 200-strikeout upside once he fully settles into an expanded role.

MLB Pitching

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	IP	BB
2025	Boston Red Sox	4	4	1	2	2.33	1.09	29	19.1	4
2026	Boston Red Sox	17	17	7	5	3.44	1.25	93	91.2	34
Career	Totals	21	21	8	7	3.24	1.23	122	111	38

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Minor League Pitching

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	IP	BB
2023	Salem Red Sox	1	1	0	0	4.50	0.50	4	2.0	0
2024	2 teams▼	23	23	3	9	3.99	1.19	138	103.2	39
2025	2 teams▼	21	18	10	3	2.60	1.11	132	100.1	40
Career	Totals	45	42	13	12	3.32	1.14	274	206	79

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Game Log2026 season

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Analytics2026 season · via Baseball Savant

Click for year to year changes

FB Velo93.4 mph

Avg Spin2119 rpm

Whiff %23.7%

K %23.8%

BB %8.7%

Hard Hit %40.9%

Barrel %10.6%

xERA4.31

xBA Against0.234

xSLG Against0.409

BA Against0.235

SLG Against0.401

GB%44.1%

FB%30.3%

What These Stats Mean

FB Velo — Average fastball velocity. Harder throwers generate more swings and misses, setting up every other pitch in their arsenal. Velocity is the foundation of strikeout upside.

Avg Spin — Average spin rate across all pitches. Higher spin creates more movement and makes pitches harder to square up — elite spinners run better strikeout and batting average against numbers.

Whiff % — Swings-and-misses per swing. The most direct measure of a pitcher's ability to miss bats and the best leading indicator of strikeout rate.

K % — Strikeout rate per batter faced. The core fantasy pitching stat — high K% means reliable strikeout totals that hold up even in shorter starts.

BB % — Walk rate per batter faced. The primary control metric. High BB% tanks ERA and WHIP and keeps baserunners on constantly. Elite starters typically run below 7%.

Hard Hit % — Percentage of batted balls hit 95 mph or harder against. Low hard-hit% means weak contact, protecting both ERA and the defense behind the pitcher.

Barrel % — Percentage of batted balls barreled against. The most direct home run predictor — low barrel% pitchers rarely give up long balls.

xERA — Expected ERA based on contact quality allowed, removing the effect of sequencing, luck, and defense. Better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself.

xBA Against — Expected batting average opponents should hit based on contact quality. A gap between xBA and actual BA indicates unsustainable luck in either direction.

xSLG Against — Expected slugging allowed based on contact quality. High xSLG against predicts future extra-base damage; low xSLG means the pitcher is genuinely suppressing power.

BA Against — Actual batting average opponents are hitting — a key WHIP component. Check xBA to see if the number is sustainable.

SLG Against — Actual slugging allowed. Captures hits, doubles, triples, and home runs — lower means the pitcher is limiting the power damage he gives up.

GB% — Ground ball rate. High GB% pitchers generate double plays, limit home runs, and keep the ball in the park — great for protecting ERA and WHIP ratios.

FB% — Fly ball rate. High FB% pitchers give up more air contact — dangerous when combined with high exit velocity, less so when contact is soft.

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Year

Team

ERA

WHIP

2025

Boston Red Sox

2.33

1.09

19.1

2026

Boston Red Sox

3.44

1.25

91.2

Career

Totals

3.24

1.23

122

111

Year

Team

ERA

WHIP

2023

Salem Red Sox

4.50

0.50

2.0

2024

2 teams▼

3.99

1.19

138

103.2

2025

2 teams▼

2.60

1.11

132

100.1

Career

Totals

3.32

1.14

274

206