Jarren Duran

Active

Boston Red Sox · Outfielder

Age 296' 0" · 205 lbsBats Left

FBaseball Overview

Coming off a disappointing 2026 season, Duran presents a significant regression concern for fantasy managers after his breakout 2025 campaign that earned him All-MLB honors and a Ted Williams All-Star MVP award. His batting average has cratered to .197 with reduced power and run production across the board, suggesting potential injury, mechanical issues, or simple bad luck that could persist into 2026. The one bright spot remains his stolen base ability—he swiped 12 bags in just 309 at-bats, indicating he hasn't lost his speed—though the lack of on-base opportunities makes his SB upside limited without batting average improvement. Fantasy managers should proceed cautiously, as Duran's 2025 success makes him risky at his likely ADP; he'll need a significant bounceback to provide meaningful value in most formats.

News Updates

Jarren Duran Homers in Red Sox Victory
Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran hit his 13th home run of the season, a two-run shot, during Sunday's 7-5 win over the Angels. Duran went 2-for-3 with a walk in the game, continuing his strong offensive performance as an All-Star representative for Boston.
Jul 6, 2026

MLB Hitting

Year	Team	G	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS
2021	Boston Red Sox	33	.215	2	10	17	2	.241	.336	.577
2022	Boston Red Sox	58	.221	3	17	23	7	.283	.363	.646
2023	Boston Red Sox	102	.295	8	40	46	24	.346	.482	.828
2024	Boston Red Sox	160	.285	21	75	111	34	.342	.492	.834
2025	Boston Red Sox	157	.256	16	84	86	24	.332	.442	.774
2026	Boston Red Sox	81	.197	13	43	39	14	.259	.361	.620
Career	Totals	591	.257	63	269	322	105	.318	.439	.757

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Minor League Hitting

Year	Team	G	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS
2018	2 teams▼	67	.357	3	35	52	24	.394	.516	.910
2019	2 teams▼	132	.303	5	38	90	46	.367	.408	.775
2021	Worcester Red Sox	60	.258	16	36	46	16	.357	.516	.873
2022	Worcester Red Sox	68	.283	10	38	49	18	.349	.491	.840
2023	Worcester Red Sox	11	.195	2	6	8	2	.353	.439	.792
Career	Totals	338	.299	36	153	245	106	.366	.468	.834

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Game Log2026 season

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Analytics2026 season · via Baseball Savant

Click for year to year changes

EV Avg89.6 mph

Max EV114.7 mph

Launch Angle13°

Barrel %11%

K %29.8%

Hard Hit %38.7%

Whiff %35.4%

Chase %35.1%

xBA0.227

xSLG0.382

xwOBA0.294

GB%45.7%

LD%23.3%

FB%20.5%

What These Stats Mean

EV Avg — Average exit velocity — how hard this batter hits the ball. Elite hitters (90+ mph) make consistently hard contact, driving better batting averages and more power.

Max EV — Peak exit velocity on the batter's hardest-hit ball this season. Signals raw power potential even without a high HR total yet.

Launch Angle — Average vertical angle of the ball off the bat. The sweet spot for extra-base hits is roughly 10–30°; extreme ground ball or pop-up hitters sit outside this range.

Barrel % — Percentage of batted balls hit with the optimal exit velocity + launch angle combo. Barrels are the single best predictor of home runs and slugging percentage.

K % — Strikeout rate per plate appearance. High K% suppresses batting average and limits run-scoring opportunities — lower is better for fantasy.

Hard Hit % — Percentage of batted balls hit 95 mph or harder. A broader power indicator than barrels; high hard-hit% players rack up extra-base hits and RBI.

Sprint Speed — Peak sprint speed in feet per second. The best predictor of stolen base upside and ability to leg out infield hits.

Whiff % — Percentage of swings that miss. High whiff rates signal strikeout vulnerability, dragging down batting average and overall production.

Chase % — How often the batter swings at pitches outside the strike zone. Low chase rates mean elite plate discipline — more walks, fewer strikeouts, more consistent at-bats.

xBA — Expected batting average based on contact quality, stripping out luck and defensive positioning. Better predictor of future performance than actual batting average.

xSLG — Expected slugging based on batted ball data. A high xSLG relative to actual SLG suggests power suppressed by bad luck that's likely to bounce back.

xwOBA — Expected weighted on-base average — the most comprehensive single expected metric. Combines contact quality, walks, and strikeouts to project overall offensive production.

GB% — Ground ball rate. High GB% hitters trade home run power for speed-dependent value — good for stolen base upside, but a drag on HR and SLG categories.

LD% — Line drive rate. High LD% hitters make consistent hard contact; line drives are the batted ball type most likely to fall for hits and boost batting average.

FB% — Fly ball rate. Elite power hitters combine high FB% with high exit velocity. High fly ball rate + soft contact = home run or nothing type.

Loading player data...

Year

Team

AVG

RBI

OBP

SLG

OPS

2021

Boston Red Sox

.215

.241

.336

.577

2022

Boston Red Sox

.221

.283

.363

.646

2023

Boston Red Sox

102

.295

.346

.482

.828

2024

Boston Red Sox

160

.285

111

.342

.492

.834

2025

Boston Red Sox

157

.256

.332

.442

.774

2026

Boston Red Sox

.197

.259

.361

.620

Career

Totals

591

.257

269

322

105

.318

.439

.757

Year

Team

AVG

RBI

OBP

SLG

OPS

2018

2 teams▼

.357

.394

.516

.910

2019

2 teams▼

132

.303

.367

.408

.775

2021

Worcester Red Sox

.258

.357

.516

.873

2022

Worcester Red Sox

.283

.349

.491

.840

2023

Worcester Red Sox

.195

.353

.439

.792

Career

Totals

338

.299

153

245

106

.366

.468

.834