Ryne Nelson

ActiveIL

Arizona Diamondbacks · Pitcher

Age 286' 3" · 184 lbsThrows Right

FBaseball Overview

Nelson enters 2026 as a mid-rotation starter for Arizona whose fantasy value hinges on improved consistency after a disappointing early-season stretch. The right-hander demonstrated upside last year with a 3.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 154 innings, but early returns this season show regression with a 4.97 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 83 innings, suggesting control issues may be limiting his strikeout upside. While his 62 strikeouts through his 2026 work indicate he can miss bats in spurts, the win-loss record and ERA tell a concerning story for managers seeking reliable production in ERA and WHIP. Nelson remains a boom-or-bust pitcher best suited for deeper leagues or streaming against weaker lineups until he demonstrates a return to his 2025 form.

MLB Pitching

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	ERA	WHIP	K	IP	BB
2022	Arizona Diamondbacks	3	3	1	1	0	1.47	0.82	16	18.1	6
2023	Arizona Diamondbacks	29	27	8	8	0	5.31	1.42	96	144.0	46
2024	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	10	6	1	4.24	1.25	126	150.2	34
2025	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	7	3	1	3.39	1.07	132	154.0	41
2026	Arizona Diamondbacks	15	15	3	5	0	4.97	1.24	62	83.1	22
Career	Totals	108	93	29	23	2	4.30	1.23	432	550.1	149

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Minor League Pitching

Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	IP	BB
2019	Hillsboro Hops	10	7	0	1	2.89	1.34	26	18.2	10
2021	2 teams▼	22	22	7	4	3.17	1.09	163	116.1	40
2022	Reno Aces	26	26	10	5	5.43	1.39	128	136.0	47
2023	Reno Aces	4	4	0	1	3.74	1.20	9	21.2	7
Career	Totals	62	59	17	11	4.24	1.25	326	292.2	104

Source: MLB Stats API · Multi-team seasons show combined totals — click to expand

Game Log2026 season

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Pitching Analytics2026 season · via Baseball Savant

Click for year to year changes

FB Velo96.3 mph

Avg Spin2330 rpm

Whiff %21.0%

K %17.5%

BB %6.2%

Hard Hit %43.2%

Barrel %10.2%

xERA5.20

xBA Against0.261

xSLG Against0.5

BA Against0.249

SLG Against0.477

GB%32.5%

FB%37.4%

What These Stats Mean

FB Velo — Average fastball velocity. Harder throwers generate more swings and misses, setting up every other pitch in their arsenal. Velocity is the foundation of strikeout upside.

Avg Spin — Average spin rate across all pitches. Higher spin creates more movement and makes pitches harder to square up — elite spinners run better strikeout and batting average against numbers.

Whiff % — Swings-and-misses per swing. The most direct measure of a pitcher's ability to miss bats and the best leading indicator of strikeout rate.

K % — Strikeout rate per batter faced. The core fantasy pitching stat — high K% means reliable strikeout totals that hold up even in shorter starts.

BB % — Walk rate per batter faced. The primary control metric. High BB% tanks ERA and WHIP and keeps baserunners on constantly. Elite starters typically run below 7%.

Hard Hit % — Percentage of batted balls hit 95 mph or harder against. Low hard-hit% means weak contact, protecting both ERA and the defense behind the pitcher.

Barrel % — Percentage of batted balls barreled against. The most direct home run predictor — low barrel% pitchers rarely give up long balls.

xERA — Expected ERA based on contact quality allowed, removing the effect of sequencing, luck, and defense. Better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself.

xBA Against — Expected batting average opponents should hit based on contact quality. A gap between xBA and actual BA indicates unsustainable luck in either direction.

xSLG Against — Expected slugging allowed based on contact quality. High xSLG against predicts future extra-base damage; low xSLG means the pitcher is genuinely suppressing power.

BA Against — Actual batting average opponents are hitting — a key WHIP component. Check xBA to see if the number is sustainable.

SLG Against — Actual slugging allowed. Captures hits, doubles, triples, and home runs — lower means the pitcher is limiting the power damage he gives up.

GB% — Ground ball rate. High GB% pitchers generate double plays, limit home runs, and keep the ball in the park — great for protecting ERA and WHIP ratios.

FB% — Fly ball rate. High FB% pitchers give up more air contact — dangerous when combined with high exit velocity, less so when contact is soft.

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Year

Team

ERA

WHIP

2022

Arizona Diamondbacks

1.47

0.82

18.1

2023

Arizona Diamondbacks

5.31

1.42

144.0

2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

4.24

1.25

126

150.2

2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

3.39

1.07

132

154.0

2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

4.97

1.24

83.1

Career

Totals

108

4.30

1.23

432

550.1

149

Year

Team

ERA

WHIP

2019

Hillsboro Hops

2.89

1.34

18.2

2021

2 teams▼

3.17

1.09

163

116.1

2022

Reno Aces

5.43

1.39

128

136.0

2023

Reno Aces

3.74

1.20

21.2

Career

Totals

4.24

1.25

326

292.2

104